Evan's 2022 Draft Analsys and Predictions
Evan's 2022 Draft Analsys and Predictions
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Well here we are, finally back for another season of the best sport on the planet, NFL football. Personally, I’m excited for a road to redemption this year after my miserable performance but we’ll see how my team fares (more to come on this). The parity in this league has really been fun over the past few years and I really think we have a strong, engaged manager base that makes this league enjoyable. The draft for this league is always interesting and never seems to remotely follow any mock draft you might prep with. This year I’m thinking I’ll do a best case/worst case for each team, along with my favorite and least favorite pick from that team. That’s probably enough nice things to say for one year, so let’s get this show on the road.
There has been some chatter about my…let’s say expertise, and if I am truly qualified to do a draft recap after finishing in last place. To that, I kindly say: go fuck yourself. As the only three-time champion plus multi-time champion from many other leagues, I am the most qualified for this job (read that last sentence in a Trump voice for a good laugh).
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Best Case: Christian McCaffrey plays 15-17 games this year, Justin Jefferson puts up Cooper Kupp numbers in a new offense and Zeke never loses a game this year.
Worst Case: Christian McCaffrey gets hurts in week 2 like he always does leaving this team with no RBs, Mike Evans and Keenan Allen start showing their age, and this team can’t sneak into the playoffs.
Favorite Pick: Skyy Moore in the 9th is interesting upside and could be a new keeper if he breaks out.
Least Favorite Pick: Antonio Gibson – he’s still in a three RB time share even after Brian Robinson got shot.
Best Case: Najee Harris finishes as RB1 after taking on a Leveon Bell type role in the Steelers offense, George Kittle has a bounce back campaign finishing among the top 3 TEs, and Tee Higgins or Devonta Smith have a coming out type of season leading this team to a playoff berth even if they can’t make a championship game.
Worst Case: Najee Harris doesn’t take a step forward and this team has nothing more than a handful of second WRs on their own teams. Drake London and Michael Gallup never return from injury and this team doesn’t sniff the playoffs.
Favorite Pick: Derek Carr in round 11 is good value to me, especially with a new weapon in Davante Adams.
Least Favorite Pick: Tee Higgins – he’s a nice player but I don’t like drafting a second receiver this early (2nd round)…I’m also down on Bengals not named Ja’Marr Chase this year.
Best Case: Derrick Henry and Javonte Williams play 15-16 games and both AJ and Hollywood Brown shine with their new teams. Add Mark Andrews repeating his performance from last year, and I could see this team winning it all.
Worst Case: Derrick Henry starts to play like he’s nearing 30, Jalen Hurts can’t get the ball to AJ Brown consistently, and the Cardinals go on their annual 2nd half nosedive after the new Call of Duty game comes out forcing this team to miss the playoffs just like Kyler and Hollywood.
Favorite Pick: AJ Brown – I mentioned it above but I actually do like his situation in Philly, where I think he’ll get a lot of targets.
Least Favorite Pick: Jahan Dotson – not a bad spot to pick him but I’m surprised to see him go before some WRs in better offensive situations ie: not having to catch footballs from Carson Wentz.
Best Case: Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton both finish as top 10 WRs with their new QBs feeding them points, along with Alvin Kamara not having to serve a suspension this year and I could see this team in the playoffs for sure. Add in a locked in Tom Brady and Cole might have a shot at a championship.
Worst Case: Tom Brady retires halfway through the year to avoid a divorce from Gisele, Matt Ryan is truly washed up and can’t throw to Michael Pittman, no QB emerges in Pittsburgh to get Diontae Johnson the ball.
Favorite Pick: Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton – I really like the value here with these two WRs in rounds 2-3.
Least Favorite Pick: Darnell Mooney – I know he’s essentially the only WR in Chicago, but I don’t understand going WR in the 5th after already having 3 of them.
Best Case: AJ Dillon becomes the lead back in GB after an injury to Aaron Jones, DK Metcalf has a strong connection with Geno Smith (gross), Jalen Hurts puts up sneak top 5 fantasy QB stats, and Treylon Burks is the real deal in Tennessee. Ekeler will also need to really shine but if all that happens, I can see this team in the playoffs.
Worst Case: Jalen Hurts is forced by defenses to do something besides throw to his first read while also being spied, AJ Dillon is nothing more than a short yardage back, and none of these WRs do anything of note. This team could be in the toilet bowl.
Favorite Pick: Jalen Hurts – I like his potential this year as a fantasy QB with pass + run stats even though round 4 might have been a hair early.
Least Favorite Pick: Elijah Moore - I am a Zach Wilson guy but I don’t like getting Moore here just based off of everyone else left on the board. All Jets WRs are off limits for me though.
Best Case: Davante Adams picks right up where he and Derek Carr left off in college, Mahomes has a season similar to his MVP season, and Allen Lazard is the surefire WR1 in Green Bay. Likely will also need Tony Pollard or Rhamondre Stevenson to really move into a larger role this year for this team to make the playoffs.
Worst Case: Cam Akers is in a three RB time share, Davante Adams can’t get away from double coverage, none of Chris Olave, Kadarius Toney, or Alec Pierce make an impact for their offenses.
Favorite Pick: Kadarius Toney – I like the value in the 9th round for a guy who could be a big focal point of the Giants new offense under Brian Daboll.
Least Favorite Pick: Patrick Mahomes – I fucked this up….no idea why I picked Mahomes with Pittman, AJ Brown, and Keenan Allen still on the board.
Best Case: D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery take their game to the next level and finish as top 10 RBs, Ja’Marr Chase is able to climb above his rookie years stats, and Russell Wilson returns to fantasy prominence with a fresh start in Denver. I can see this team easily in the playoffs but maybe not quite able to win it.
Worst Case: Chris Godwin can’t stay healthy, neither of Swift or Montgomery can maintain consistent production, and Russell Wilson is farther on the downhill part of his career than is expected. Having Chase as a keeper allowed for some risks at RB early, but if neither pan out this team could be bottom four this year.
Favorite Pick: KJ Osborn – great value in the 12th round! Rumors out of Vikings camp that Osborn might out perform Adam Thielen this year.
Least Favorite Pick: Devin Singletary – I’m out on Bills RBs until one of them proves me wrong. They just have very minimal upside as long as Josh Allen is playing QB and running in TDs in the red zone.
Best Case: Zeke Elliott is able to finish in the top 10 RBs on the season, DJ Moore quickly becomes Baker Mayfield’s go to guy, and Michael Thomas is at least 80% of what he was pre-injury. Add in Trey Lance becoming a top 15 QB and I can see this team making the playoffs.
Worst Case: Trey Lance sucks and is benched for Jimmy G within 4 games, Zeke Elliott is washed and gets his workload shifted to Tony Pollard, JK Dobbins continues to struggle with injuries and misses half the season. If things go poorly this could be a toilet bowl team. Might be the biggest risk vs. reward team coming out of the draft.
Favorite Pick: Brandin Cooks – I think this is nice value in the fifth for a guy who finished WR20 last year. Plus someone has to catch the ball in Houston, right?
Least Favorite Pick: Zeke Elliott – I’ve been hinting at this but I think this year is the start of the decline for Zeke.
Best Case: Jonathan Taylor has a repeat of last year, Travis Kelce bounces back from a down year, and Josh Jacobs is on a mission after having his 5th year option declined by the Raiders. This team has playoff potential but I don’t think I put them in the championship contender group.
Worst Case: Joe Burrow comes back down to earth after the Super Bowl loss, Travis Kelce shows he’s on the wrong side of 30, and none of these WRs are able to fill the WR 2 slot. Add in an IDP drafted in the 7th and this team isn’t close to the playoffs.
Favorite Pick: Rashod Bateman – Good value in the 6th for a guy who will likely be the WR1 in Baltimore even though we aren’t quite sure what that means.
Least Favorite Pick: Joe Burrow – love Burrow but I think the 3rd round is wayyyy too early for a guy who finished QB 7 last year and hasn’t been full go for all of training camp.
Best Case: Kyle Pitts turns into an absolute monster and finished TE1 by an insane margin, Saquon Barkely is a benefactor of a new offensive scheme, Gabe Davis emerges as the true WR2 for Josh Allen and Buffalo. If Cooper Kupp can get close to his numbers from a season ago, this team could be playoff bound, but I’m not sure their a championship contender.
Worst Case: Pitts finishes around TE5 and looks like a waste of a 1st round pick, Saquon sucks like he always does, Elijah Mitchell can’t get on the field, and Kirk Cousins can’t pick up his new offense. Couple bad breaks and this could be one of Alex’s worst teams in years.
Favorite Pick: James Conner and Kirk Cousins – couldn’t pick favorite here…Conner is such a sneaky good value even though he’s a bit TD dependent and Kirk could be in for a big season with an offensive coach so he’s great value in the 11th round.
Least Favorite Pick: Saquon Barkley – this dude hasn’t been healthy since George Bush was president.
Tony Bartleson
Best Case: Breece Hall becomes a rookie of the year candidate, Jaylen Waddle and Tua continue to develop chemistry pushing him into a top 15 WR finish, and Dameon Pierce gets a healthy amount of touches as the Texans lead back. Add a breakout rookie year from George Pickens and this is an easy playoff team but not a repeat champ.
Worst Case: Amon-Ra St. Brown falls victim to a sophomore slump, Josh Allen can’t recapture his magic from last season, none of Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, or Kenneth Walker actually pan out as a starting RB. All of the youth on this team take this squad straight to the bottom of the league. (see what I did there?) **I also have to mention that this team has Brian Robinson who got shot multiple times the week before our draft.
Favorite Pick: Dameon Pierce – I’m probably buying into too much hype but this is great value in the 6th for a guy who is expected to be a large piece of Houston’s offense.
Least Favorite Pick: Jaylen Waddle – this guy is trending down for me simply because of the addition of Tyreek Hill to take away targets and I really don’t think Tua is all that great.
Best Case: Deebo Samuel becomes Trey Lance’s favorite target, Jerry Jeudy rejuvenates his career with Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson goes wild in a contract year, Hunter Renfrow is able to still put up numbers even with Davante Adams in Vegas. Add a breakout from Marquez Valdes-Scantling catching passes from Mahomes and this team will be easily in the playoffs.
Worst Case: Aaron Jones starts to show the wear on his tires and gives carries to AJ Dillon, Darren Waller is banged up all season, Miles Sanders never becomes a reliable RB2, and none of the 2nd tier WRs on this team pan out could mean a bottom four finish.
Favorite Pick: Lamar Jackson – I like Lamar in a contract year to really get back to putting up rushing stats this year.
Least Favorite Pick: Jerry Jeudy – I think Courtland Sutton will be the main target for Russell Wilson and I like some of the other guys picked after Jeudy better than him.
Best Case: Tyreek Hill is able to put up KC type numbers even with a much worse QB, Allen Robinson becomes a major red zone threat for Matt Stafford and the Rams, and Cordarrelle Patterson has a repeat of last season. Add in Justin Herbert having another top 2 season and this could be a top 4 team.
Worst Case: Tyreek Hill finds out that he really misses Patrick Mahomes, Terry McLaurin suffers from catching passes from Carson Wentz, Justin Herbert struggles with a very tough AFC West, and Clyde Edward-Helaire still sucks. This team might still be in the hunt late but I would guess likely miss the playoffs.
Favorite Pick: Allen Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson – couldn’t choose between these two because I really like the upside for Robinson in LA this year and C-Pat is great value in the 8th for a guy who finished RB 9 last year.
Least Favorite Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – this guy is on my do not draft list because aside from him never living up to the hype, KC keeps adding RBs to compete with him including keeping 4 RBs on their active roster.
Best Case: Travis Etienne shows everyone what we missed from his rookie season and has a breakout year and finishes as a top 10 RB, JuJu Smith-Schuster becomes the new favorite target in KC, and James Cook finally shows us what a true RB1 looks like in Buffalo’s offense. Add in Mike Williams gobbling up redzone targets and this squad can make the playoffs.
Worst Case: Dalvin Cook starts to show his age and the Vikings use more of committee approach, JuJu Smith-Schuster struggles to get on the same page as Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence fails to develop, and Thielen’s targets dry up in favor of KJ Osborn. Plus the injury risk of Etienne who was already hurt again this year, could put this team toward the bottom.
Favorite Pick: Trevor Lawrence – I like the risk reward here of taking T-Law in the 12th. If he can improve under new coach, Doug Pederson, he could be a steal here.
Least Favorite Pick: Travis Etienne – I see the angle for picking Etienne here with his expected role in the passing game, but I don’t like this much injury risk and unknown with my 2nd round pick.
Playoff Predictions:
Zeke
Clint
Cole
Andrew R
Alex J
Tony
Championship game: Zeke vs Clint
Hope you all enjoy reading this.
Worst of luck to you all this year,
Evan
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